The Fourth Turning

William Strauss and Neil Howe, in their 1997 book titled THE FOURTH TURNING, theorize that society has a collective personality that changes on a regular cyclical basis. This cycle repeats itself every four generations (every 80 to 100 years), with each generation having a distinct persona.

When the collective persona changes, every 20 years or so, it’s called a turning. The four turnings comprise a repeatable cycle of social human growth.

The first turning is a high -- an optimistic period of idealism with social order and weak individualism. People born in this time frame are classified as Prophets. They challenge the moral failure of previous generations.

The second turning is an awakening -- a passionate era where social order comes under attack. Those born in this generation are Nomads. They defend society and attempt to slow social change.

The third turning is an unraveling -- a down period of strong individualism and weakening social order. This generation is called Heroes. They tend toward pessimism, fueling a society-wide crisis.

The fourth turning is a crisis -- a tumultuous period where the old social order is replaced by a new one. Those born in this generation are Artists. They believe in cooperation and become sensitive helpmates.

The repeatable cycles of social change always start out on an optimistic high, followed by an awakening, leading to an unraveling, culminating in a crisis. History is replete with this four-generation cycle.

The American Revolution – (1701-1791). It started as an optimistic age of enlightenment and culminated with the American Revolutionary War.

The Civil War – (1791-1866). The newly created nation was in an optimistic period full of promise. The cycle climaxed with the bloody Civil War.

The Great Power – (1866-1946). The era started with reconstruction after the Civil War with a positive outlook toward the future and ended with World War II.

The Present Cycle began in 1946, just after the end of the last world war.

In the first turning, society entered a period of building and fortification. There was great optimism when soldiers returned home to start a fresh life and the economy began to boom.

The second turning is an awakening. According to Strauss and Howe, an awakening is when a society takes a sudden turn in a new direction. In the mid-1960s, about 20 years after the start of the Present Cycle, our social fabric was torn apart by our involvement in Vietnam. The Prophets born in the first turning became teenagers and young adults in this time frame, rebelling against the established civil structure and ideals.

The third turning in the Present Cycle took place in the mid-1980s, a period of unraveling when social anxiety caused the old order to decay and new values to emerge. This was an era of self-interest replacing societal interests. After decades of liberal rule by Democrats, with their big government social programs, the more conservative ideals of Ronald Reagan and George Bush, Sr. became the social order of the day. Individuals began to become more materialistic and less caring about others. It was dubbed the “Me Generation.”

The fourth turning is a period of crisis. It often starts with an event that triggers an upheaval in public life. We are now in the early stages of the fourth turning of this cycle. It probably started on September 11, 2001 and will probably end in 2020 or soon thereafter. This will be a time of focus and sacrifice in a struggle for survival. If the theory of cyclical social events is correct, it may last 20 years or so. Then we will start all over with a new high, a rebirth of optimism and idealism.

As a society, we appear to be trapped in an endless cycle of inevitable highs and lows. Apparently, history repeats itself in some sort of bizarre 80-year mood swing, pitting each generation against one another.

As individuals, all we can do is treat others the way we want to be treated and go along for the ride.

Like it or not, we’re all in this together.

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Quote for the Day – "Life is a long lesson in humility." James M. Barrie

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Bret Burquest is the author of 12 books. He lives in the Ozark Mountains with a few dogs and where three left turns makes a right.

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Republic Lost

By definition, a republic is a union of independent entities, usually associated with common business and financial interests, favoring a restricted government role in economic life.

After winning independence from the British in 1776, the founding fathers became engaged in a debate as to exactly what form of government the new country should take.

Thomas Jefferson and his followers wanted government to be the “guardian of fair play,” as arbiter of disputes, whereas Alexander Hamilton and his followers wanted government to directly dictate and control the process.

Those who wanted little or no government, approximately one-third of the population at the time, were shut out of the process because they wanted nothing to do with it in the first place.

Obviously, those who don’t want to be governed by others generally don’t become involved in organizing such a system.

Thus, the Republic of the United States of America came into existence in 1776 in the form of a set of individual democratic states, independent of each other, with a central body to deal primarily with internal disputes, international relations and a common defense.

In 1860, Presidential candidate Abraham Lincoln proposed an expansion of the role of the federal government, which included a national bank, protective tariffs and mercantilism (an economic system of strict government control of the national economy).

Ironically, mercantilism was the very system of abuses the founding fathers revolted against.

Even though Southerners had only half the population as the North, they had been paying 87% of all federal taxes collected, mostly in import duties of foreign manufactured goods.

The centerpiece of Lincoln’s Republican Party platform was a high protective tariff that would have raised existing import duties by 250 percent.

The South was willing to secede from the Union rather than succumb to the tyranny of the national government controlled by the North.

In his first inaugural address, President Lincoln stated, “I understand a proposed amendment to the Constitution has passed Congress, to the effect that the Federal Government shall never interfere with the domestic institutions of the States, including that of persons held in service [slaves]. I have no objection to this amendment being made express and irrevocable.”

This proposed amendment would have legalized slavery in the southern states forever. Lincoln supported it as an offering to the South not to follow through with their plans to secede from the Union.

On March 11, 1861, delegates in Montgomery, Alabama, adopted a new Confederate Constitution affirming that the states were “sovereign and independent” as envisioned by the founding fathers.

This set in motion events that erupted into the American Civil War.

Lincoln ordered federal troops to arrest anyone critical of the war and to shut down newspapers editorializing against it.

Lincoln's subsequent emancipation of the slaves was primarily a strategic maneuver to weaken the Southern economy (by reducing blacks from the southern labor force) and strengthen the Northern Army (by adding black soldiers).

In the end, state's rights died at Appomattox. After the Civil War, our initial Republic of independent states became a national, centralized government.

"I worked night and day for 12 years to prevent this war, but I could not. The North was mad and blind, would not let us govern ourselves, and so the war came." Jefferson Davis

The Civil War was more about state's rights than it was about slavery. The vast majority of Southern Rebel fighters did not own slaves -- it was the wealthy southern plantation owners who were the slave owners. Basically, the South was fighting for autonomy (self-government) and the North was fighting for control of a tax base.

Thus, we were no longer a Republic and the federal government has been expanding its power and control ever since.

Prior to the Civil War, people used the phrase “The United States of America are …”

After the Civil War, the phrase changed to “The United States of America is …”

Whether or not we would have been better off remaining a Republic of independent states rather than creating a strong centralized federal government is subject to debate.

Big government tends to become a self-protective, ever-expanding organism that feeds relentlessly off its subjects, demanding obedience, impeding progress, granting special favors and curtailing individual freedom.

Ultimately, a government big enough to give you all you want will cost you all you have.

But not to worry, we've borrowed against the future to cover our unrestrained spending addiction, creating a multi-trillion dollar national debt to be passed on to future generations.

Ironically, our government-controlled public school system has children pledging allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands.

Instead of indoctrinating our children into being good little robotic patriots, perhaps we should be teaching them that we are no longer a Republic.

And perhaps we should be advising our children that each of them is already many tens of thousands of dollars in debt and they haven't even started working yet to pay it off.

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Quote for the Day – "All the truth in the world adds up to one big lie." Bob Dylan

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Bret Burquest is the author of 12 books. He lives in the Ozark Mountains with a few dogs and where freedom is never free.

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